The model the two developed using the coin distribution and less controversial census data from earlier periods suggests that the population of Rome did in fact decline after 100 B.C., suggesting the census did likely begin to include women and children and that Ancient Rome wasn't substantially larger than historians had thought.īy these estimates the entire population of the Roman Empire - and not just its male population - was somewhere around 4 million to 5 million people by the end of the first century B.C. "This is a general phenomenon, not just in Rome." "Hoards are an excellent indicator of internal turmoil," Turchin said. If the people who hid these bundles were killed or driven off, they wouldn't have been able to retrieve them, leaving them for archaeologists to find.Īccording to the researchers, mapping out the times when the coins were buried is a good indirect method for measuring the intensity of internal warfare and unrest, and therefore a key indicator of population demographics. To help put an end to the debate, University of Connecticut theoretical biologist Peter Turchin and Stanford University ancient historian Walter Scheidel focused on the region's prevalence of coin hoards, those bundles of buried treasure that people hid to protect their savings during times of great violence and political strife. It would mean that Roman history as it is now understood would have to be rewritten. This would mean that the Roman Empire - and other premodern societies - achieved much higher economic output than previously supposed. On the other side of the debate are those who suggest that the population simply boomed. While this would account for the relative increase, it would actually imply an overall decline in the population of Rome and there are no suggestions that the entire populace was counted in historical records. One camp explains the discrepancy by suggesting that the Empire began counting women and children in the census.
Just what accounts for that increase is a matter of intense debate.
While the granting of citizenship to allies on the Italian peninsula accounts for some of the increase, there is still an estimated unexplained doubling or tripling in the Roman population before the first Augustan census in 28 B.C.
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